We're not there yet, but with the New Provincial Boundaries set, it looks like there will definitely be new faces making decisions on Broadway come next election. Of particular note is the combination of Minnedosa and Russell constituencies into the new Riding Mountain seat, and the addition of Dawson Trail, home of many francophone rural communities between Winnipeg and Steinbach. As well, with the passing of Oscar Lathlin, The Pas opens up some intriguing possibilities for Political Parties to put their best foot forward. We can assume Elmwood is Bill Blaikie's for the taking, but there have been surprises before.
For the most part, there are no other radical changes that will prevent sitting MLAs from holding onto their seats. Manitoba elections have never been particularly exciting, owing to limited resources and imagination. Of course, there is a vague possibility of a swing to the provincial Progressive-Conservatives, should Hugh McFadyen make a convincing case to suburban voters of his suitability for being Premier, and if they decide to no longer see Doer as a winner. Not much chance of that just yet, although cracks are appearing in the formidable NDP machine, especially when one considers the weak back-bench strength.
When one factors in the Feds into the mix, a scarier picture emerges.
Strong Conservative penetration from the south-east builds upon the Blue west and sub-urban north. While each of these is strongly influenced by their rural components, it has definitely become far more threatening. The absence of Liberal strength beyond River Heights and Tyndall Park leaves little alternative for prudent stability seekers. It will take time for Michael Ignatieff to develop a credible Winnipeg team, let alone build a full Manitoba squad of credible candidates. That said, there are a world of opportunities yet to be explored, for those who have eyes to see. With the tough and seasoned politicians at the ready, any change will require dedicated team-work, team building, and that ever elusive time.
